Li Qiang: Taihe concern: the situation of supply and demand change in nickel prices will not be long-term low [price] a cuprous oxide
With the promulgating of economic data for October, LME (London Metal Exchange) 3 months nickel venue closing price from October 28, $10600 / tons of all the way down to November 6th 9635 dollars / tons, the realization of the second bottom. It must be noted that November 6, LME nickel inventories dropped to 424188 tons, the January 26, 424344 tons since the lows hit a, Chinese ports nickel ore inventory quantity also hit a new low since the end of March 2012.
Since the beginning of 2015, LME nickel price fell below the $15000 / ton mark. In August 24th, after briefly dropping to $9100 / ton, shattered nickel production business confidence. Since the nickel price is still at 10000 U. S. dollars / ton, whether China or the world's supply of nickel in the world will be greatly reduced, the time of recovery is still very distant.
Relevant statistics show that this year 1 January ~ July global nickel supply and demand appeared 1.6 million tons of metal gap, Russia Knowles Leith grams Norlisk will 2016 global nickel supply shortage is expected to increase to 6 million tons of metal. There are many organizations have published a variety of statistics and forecast, despite the differences in their data, but both reflect the basic facts of the steady growth of nickel supply and nickel demand.
Due to the nickel prices continued to slump and ore source shortage, Chinese nickel pig iron production enterprises, production or converting and the collapse of more widespread phenomenon, 2015 ferronickel production decline will exceed previous cautious forecast, 2016 will remain the current rate of decline.
LME nickel price of less than $15000 / ton has been going on for a year, Philippines mining efforts there is a clear trend of decreasing. The limitation of low nickel ore grade of the Philippines and the rainy season is very clear, China's dependence on overseas nickel plate nickel or nickel iron production enterprises from the third quarter of this year began to forced to extend maintenance time or maintain a low level of production. Indonesia and Burma, China has invested heavily in the production of nickel project gathered have gone beyond the prior to the profit and loss calculation and production losses the harsh reality of no signs of any improvement, whether investment had ambitions geometry and reality is the best choice is obviously delay production or delay the production schedule.
Cliff nickel prices falling sharply, so that the application of stainless steel once again achieved a historic high popularity. Stainless steel market in 2015 the marked a turning point, processing enterprises or traders are trying to change the purchase stockpile re sales of the traditional business model, stainless steel inventory gets pushed back the stainless steel smelting enterprises in the warehouse. January 2015 ~9 month, China's stainless steel production increased by 6.5% to 17260000 tons. In view of the stainless steel smelting enterprises capacity is very limited, in stainless steel exports to reduce, of China stainless steel market capacity apparently continues to expand. Both Shawan District, Leshan City, Sichuan Province, stainless steel processing enterprises to meet the production order or the bustle of the city of Chengdu in the stainless steel market, or Shandong Huaye Group sales staff suffer from stainless steel tube is always in short supply, are a reflection of the continuous expansion of the application field of stainless steel.
With the expansion of the field of stainless steel, nickel supply and demand situation is continuing to reverse, the nickel price will not be a long-term low.
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